Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Emerging technologies, changing demographics, and shifting travel behavior: experiment results using the Southeast Florida regional activity-based model framework
Emerging technologies, changing demographics, and shifting attitudes and preferences are positioned to disrupt travel patterns as we currently know them. Millennials are comfortable with using a wider array of options to address their activities and are eschewing or delaying automobile ownership at a time when an aging Baby Boomer population is also looking for transportation alternatives. Ubiquitous Internet expands the ability to accomplish the same tasks that used to require trip making (e.g., teleworking; telecommuting; online schooling, shopping, banking, and entertainment). At the same time, ridesourcing modes facilitated by smartphones increase the mobility options, particularly for those who do not own a vehicle. Of major interest, connected vehicles and various types of automated and autonomous vehicles (C/AV) represent a breakthrough in surface transportation, with potentially profound implications for land use, travel behavior, transportation investments, safety, and economic productivity.
That said, to date, only a few state or regional long range planning processes have considered the implications of these emerging travel trends on transportation needs of the future. Furthermore, the regional model parameters were estimated from travel surveys without these effects, so it is not a given that the model response will be reasonable. The Florida Department of Transportation District Four Planning and Environmental Management Office recently sponsored an exploration of using innovative techniques, tools, and data to consider travel behavior changes due to emerging technology and demographic changes.
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